LAS VEGAS (KTNV) — As of Monday morning, a little more than half of Nevada's active registered voters had cast a ballot in the 2024 general election.
But if history is any guide, we're not done yet.
In fact, we have hundreds of thousands of votes yet to count before it's all over.
An analysis of turnout numbers in presidential years stretching back to 2020 shows the average turnout over that period is 77 percent.
That ranges from a low of 70.15 percent in 2000, when Republican George W. Bush faced off with Democrat Al Gore, to a high of 80.77 percent in 2012, when Democrat Barack Obama defeated Republican Mitt Romney.
As of Monday morning, 52.7 percent of voters had cast ballots, either early or by mail. That translates to 1,072,640 actual votes. (There are currently more than 2 million active registered voters in the state.)
That means, if Nevada hits the average turnout of 77 percent, we should expect 1.56 million ballots to be cast in this election, or an additional 496,000 votes.
But if Nevada matches the record of 80.77 percent, we're looking at a total of 1.64 million votes overall, or another 571,000 ballots.
Mail ballots are being delivered to the county's election office daily. (Since every active registered voter has received a ballot in the mail in the 2020 election, mail has proven to be the most popular method of voting in Nevada.)
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It's also unclear exactly how many people will turn out to the polls on Election Day Tuesday when polls will be open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Since the advent of early voting, Election Day voting has diminished in popularity and is now the least popular way for Nevadans to cast a ballot.
Each voting center will also have a ballot drop box for mail ballots.
Although Republicans currently lead by more than 43,000 votes, it's not impossible for Democrats to catch up and, depending on how many nonpartisans vote for Democratic candidates, to win statewide elections. But the GOP lead is unprecedented in recent memory and portends a close election in the race for president in Nevada.
The Silver State has a fairly good record in picking the winner of presidential contests, with the exception of 1976, when Nevada voted for Republican Gerald Ford and Democrat Jimmy Carter was elected, and 2016, when Democrat Hillary Clinton won Nevada but Republican Donald Trump won a majority in the Electoral College.
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