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One Washington county has picked the president correctly since 1980. Can it do it again?

Since 1980, when Ronald Reagan beat Jimmy Carter, the candidate who won this county ended up winning the White House.
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Across the waters of Puget Sound on the very top of the Olympic Peninsula of Washington state, lies a county that is as beautiful and varied as it is difficult to reach.

"You only come here if you want to come here, you don't pass through to get somewhere else," said Norma Turner, a volunteer at the county Democratic headquarters.

Clallam County is home to sections of the rainforests of Olympic National Park, 200 miles of North Pacific coastline that's a boat ride away from Canada and the beloved fictional vampires of the Twilight book and movie series.

But this place is also home to residents who have a unique knack for picking the president.

"They come here to be independent, and we're at the end of the road, and when people who want to be independent get to the end of the road, that's us," said Turner.

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Clallam County is the country's last presidential bellwether.

Since 1980, when Ronald Reagan beat Jimmy Carter, the candidate who won this county ended up winning the White House.

After Donald Trump won in 2016, there were 19 bellwether counties in the U.S. Clallam was the only one of them to switch blue and correctly pick Joe Biden as the 2020 winner.

"The county is 120 miles long. The west side of the county, very conservative logging community. The east side of the county —Sequim, primarily a lot of retirees, and then Port Angeles in the middle, pretty good mix of the two," said Mark Curtis, a volunteer at the county's Republican headquarters.

At about 87% White and 30% aged 65 and older, the county demographics don't reflect America as a whole. So how is it that Clallam has held on to the title for so long?

"This streak started sort of when the timber industry here started declining and that that brought in the need for other industries, other businesses," said former county commissioner Ron Richards, who believes it has a lot to do with economics and the dwindling legacy industries — primarily logging.

Stricter regulations placed on logging caused the industry to slow, and with it, jobs declined in the more conservative areas.

"Instead of one dominant industry with either a conservative or liberal workforce, we have a mix that's really representative of the country as a whole," said Richards.

Some new industries have come in and with them, changing ideologies, though money and jobs can be a struggle to find in the county.

The most recent unemployment rate is 5.6%. That's above the national rate of 4.2%.

"We have employment issues in Clallam County. Not only our cost of living, but our income levels are really low in Clallam County. That drives a lot of it," said Curtis.

Perhaps it's the changing economic landscape that adds another factor to its bellwether status — active political participation.

Evidence of that activity can be found at the Port Angeles senior center, where every Thursday, folks across the political spectrum have been meeting for nearly three decades to talk politics.

"With the sort of middle of the road population that we have, we're always right there close to the general overall political sentiment of the country," said Richards, who also attends the weekly discussion.

"As far as being a bellwether, we want to be a bellwether for the Democrats this year. And that's what really matters," said Denise Mackenstadt, a secretary of the Clallam Democrats.

While Democrats are confident, the area's changing demographics, with fewer blue collar jobs and the beautiful landscape attracting remote workers from cities since the last election, have Republicans worried it may be enough to lose the bellwether title.

"I think we're going to lose our bellwether status this year because I think Trump is going to win. Even if the county doesn't vote that way," said Pam Blakeman, chair of the Clallam Republicans.

As November 5 looms, so does the question if the last bellwether will be able to weather the current political storm.

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