LAS VEGAS (KTNV) — The summer seasonal outlook in Nevada is looking tough to predict, according to the state's climatologist.
Associate Professor Steph McAfee at the University of Nevada, Reno's geography department published a report on the state's climate outlook. Mostly, the report spells out welcomed news for Nevada's water supply—along with some cautions about wildfire season.
WILDFIRES
More water means more growth of wildfire fuels like grass and other brush. While the National Interagency Coordination Center predicts an average to below-average fire potential this year across the West, McAfee looks at what that means locally for Nevadans.
She says the increased grass growth from a wet winter can mean a high fire risk at lower elevations around the state, especially in northern Nevada.
"The risk of major fires will likely be higher than normal by July in northwestern Nevada. Fire risk may increase in other low and mid-elevation areas throughout the state as we progress into summer," McAfee said.
DROUGHT
Half of the U.S. West is emerging from drought, but still not fully recovered. Here in Nevada, only central Clark County remains in severe drought status. According to the Nevada Drought Update, the rest of the state is drought free or only ranked as abnormally dry. Pershing County is an exception, where moderate drought conditions remain.
WATER
The National Weather Service in Las Vegas reported on April 1 that 2023 was the coldest start to a year in the valley in over 50 years. The snow coming from those cold temperatures built up southern Nevada snowpacks, creating a record-breaking winter in our region.
McAfee compares Lake Mead projections before and after winter precipitation built up snowpacks around the west.
KTNV REPORT: What happens when record-breaking snowfall melts?
"The November 2022 24-month study projected that the water level would fall to 1,025' by late summer 2023, so water levels rising around 20' by late summer is very good news indeed," she said. Lake Mead is now at 1,045 feet and projected to even out at around 1,070 feet later this year as snowpacks melt.
TEMPERATURES
McAfee says data from the Climate Prediction Center is less informative than might be desired, as people look to what summer 2023 may look like in the Silver State.
"All of Nevada is deemed to have Equal Chances of wet, dry, or normal amounts of precipitation and Equal Chances of cooler than normal, warmer than normal or normal temperatures. It's just a tough season for forecasting," she said.
According to the climatologist, Pershing County is likely to resolve its drought over the summer. However, Clark County will probably remain in a state of drought considering there are no strong indications of a wet monsoon season in our future this year.
