LAS VEGAS (KTNV) — Mail-in ballots are still being counted for the primary election, but many races have already been called.
So while we'll have to wait until next week for the "final unofficial" results, there are some lessons that we can take away from the voting right now.
Here are nine takeaways from the primary election so far.
1. Who won the Republican primary for U.S. Senate?
It's not a trick question. We know that at this point, former U.S. Army Capt. Sam Brown is leading his race overwhelmingly, having collected nearly 60% of the vote, and way ahead of his closest competitor, former Iceland Ambassador Dr. Jeff Gunter, who's tallied 15% so far.
But former President Donald Trump — who endorsed Brown on Sunday — posted a series of posters to his Truth Social account, noting candidates who won who were "endorsed by President Trump."
To be sure, Brown sought Trump's endorsement, and even flew to Mar-a-Lago to ask for Trump's backing.
But by the time Trump finally posted his support for Brown on Truth Social, about 80% of voters had already cast their ballots. That makes it hard to argue that Trump's backing — as opposed to Brown's campaign and hard work — is responsible for Brown's victory.
2. Lee's close race
One contest in which Trump's endorsement might have made a difference is the 4th Congressional District, where former North Las Vegas Mayor John Lee is ahead. (Lee has 48.6% to rival David Flippo's 45%.)
Trump backed Lee in early June, with a week left in early voting. Lee, who served in the Nevada state Senate as a Democrat, but switched parties before mounting an unsuccessful bid for governor in 2022, is winning his race with the narrowest margin of any other House race in Nevada.
3. Lombardo wins, too
Speaking of endorsements, Gov. Joe Lombardo had a good night, watching nearly all the candidates he endorsed who had primaries win their races. All told, 10 Lombardo-backed candidates — including Brown and Lee — won their primary races.
The only exception? "HALO" composer Marty O'Donnell, who came in fourth in the Republican primary for the 3rd Congressional District.
Lombardo made a big show of endorsing candidates this year, part of his quest to ensure Democrats don't reach a two-thirds supermajority for the 2025 Legislature. If they do, the governor's vetoes could be overridden, rendering him powerless in the legislative process.
The governor — a lifetime police officer who was Clark County Sheriff before being elected in 2022 — even overcame the well-known rivalry between cops and firefighters by endorsing Clark County Fire Department Chief John Steinbeck for the open Senate District 18 seat. That endorsement bypassed longtime Assemblyman Richard McArthur, who's currently third in the GOP primary.
4. The Culinary strikes back!
Usually, the Culinary Workers Union Local 226 is on the same page as Democrats. But in the 2023 session, state Sen. Marilyn Dondero Loop, D-Las Vegas, brought a bill that would repeal requirements to clean hotel rooms every day, a bill that was passed during the COVID pandemic.
The union campaigned strongly against the bill, but ran in to opposition from the Nevada Resort Association, which ultimately won the day. The bill, Senate Bill 441, passed with bipartisan majorities.
That led the union to "un-endorse" all Democrats who voted in favor of the bill and it also led them to back Geoconda "Geo" Hughes against state Sen. Rochelle Nguyen, D-Las Vegas, who backed SB 441. (Dondero Loop was not up for election this year.)
Thus far, Nguyen is winning her seat, 55% to 45%, and the winner of the Democratic primary will likely take the seat in November, given the disproportionate Democratic registration.
But the message was clear: Go against the union and there will be consequences.
And the union did win in another contest: the open Assembly District 17 seat, where union shop steward Linda Hunt was facing off against Democratic caucus-endorsed Mishon Montgomery. Hunt is leading in that contest, 65% to 27% in a three-person race.
5. Schwartz falls again.
Republican Dan Schwartz was elected state treasurer in 2014, a good year for Republicans statewide. But ever since, he's struggled to win another contest.
In 2018, he ran for governor, coming in second in the Republican primary to Adam Laxalt, who himself would go on to lose to Democrat Steve Sisolak.
In 2020, he ran for the 3rd Congressional District, coming in behind Dan Rodimer, who went on to lose to Democrat Susie Lee. (Rodimer went on to lose a congressional race in Texas and is now accused of murder here in Las Vegas.)
In 2022, Schwartz ran for lieutenant governor, placing fourth in the Republican primary.
And this year, Schwartz is trailing Drew Johnson by about 10 points in the GOP primary for Congressional District 3.
6. Former GOP star still falling.
Schwartz doesn't have the worst record on the ballot this year. Former Republican Assemblywoman Sharron Angle is losing her latest race, this time for a Reno-area state Senate seat.
Angle served on a school board in the mid-1990s, before winning a Reno Assembly seat in 1998 and serving until 2006. That's when a steady string of losses began:
- In 2006, she ran for the 2nd Congressional District and lost to then-Secretary of State Dean Heller. Angle sued, claiming election errors made the counting invalid and demanded an entirely new election. The lawsuit was rejected.
- In 2010, Angle won the GOP primary for a chance to run against then-U.S. Sen. Harry Reid. Although Reid was considered vulnerable, he won the race by more than five percentage points due to Angle's erratic campaign.
- In 2016, Angle ran for U.S. Senate again, losing a GOP primary to former Congressman Dr. Joe Heck.
- In 2018, she ran for the 2nd Congressional District again, but lost in a primary to incumbent Mark Amodei.
Angle was once considered the Republican Party's best hope to beat a politician they hated — Reid — but she's never recovered from that disappointing showing.
7. Neal thrives despite negative publicity.
State Sen. Dina Neal is leading in her North Las Vegas district despite reports that she's under investigation by the FBI. Not only that, but Neal's opponent — former university Regent Laura Perkins — was endorsed by North Las Vegas Mayor Pamela Goynes-Brown and Councilman Issac Barron, after Neal carried legislation in 2023 that the city considered hostile.
But it looks like Neal, who enjoys an overwhelming Democratic majority in her district, will be heading back to Carson City early next year, as she's currently leading Perkins 73% to 27% in the GOP primary.
8. Luck changing for the better!
Former Las Vegas Review-Journal reporter and county employee Tanya Flanagan is famous for one of the most heartbreaking losses in Clark County political history. In 2011, Flanagan tied for second place in a primary for the Ward 2 City Council seat in North Las Vegas with fellow candidate Linda Meisenheimer.
To decide who would go on to the general election to face first-place winner Goynes-Brown, the candidates drew cards in a ceremony at City Hall. Flanagan drew the five of diamonds, but Meisenheimer drew the king of diamonds.
But now, Flanagan is back and way ahead in the Democratic primary for Assembly District 7, where she leads 80% to 20% over rival James Fennell. Since no Republicans filed for the seat — and it wouldn't really matter if one had, given the district's solid Democratic majority — Flanagan will soon be headed to the Assembly. No cards required.
9. Setting a record — in a bad way
Finally, the overall turnout for the 2024 primary in Nevada is currently at a paltry 16.34%. That will change as the unknown number of mail ballots still finding their way to local elections offices come in and are counted.
But that is not great.
In fact, it's downright bad.
It could even be called the worst.
Over the past quarter century, the lowest primary voter turnout was in 2008: 17.97% statewide. The highest turnout came two years later, in 2010, when it hit 30.12%.
The average turnout since 2000 is 24.38%.
We're nowhere near that this year, despite the fact that voting has become easier than it was in 2008.
We didn't have universal vote-by-mail in those days, in which a mail ballot is sent to every active registered voter. (And voters love that. According to the Secretary of State's office, of the ballots counted so far, nearly 60% were cast using the mail.)
But ease of voting has not improved turnout, clearly.
Another odd thing about this year's voting: In-person election day voting has slightly surpassed early voting in terms of overall popularity. Usually, mail is the most popular, followed by in-person early voting and finally, voting on Election Day.
There are many theories proffered for the lack of enthusiasm.
An unwanted rematch at the very top of the ticket (although presidential candidates were not on the primary ballot.)
The heat.
Absent voters taking vacations.
Non-partisan voters only getting to weigh in on school board, judge and city council races.
The lack of an open primary (although it is possible to change parties, even at the voting center right before you cast your ballot).
Whatever the reason, 2024 looks like it will go down in history as the lowest turnout in the last 25 years. That's a record, but not a good one.
