LAS VEGAS — On paper, the Republican presidential nomination doesn’t look that disproportionate.
Former President Donald Trump has collected 63 delegates so far, including the 26 that he claimed after easily winning the Nevada caucus on Thursday. Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley collected 17 delegates thus far, although she lost to “None of These Candidates” in the Nevada primary Tuesday.
RELATED LINK: 'None of the candidates': Nevada's unique ballot option defeats Nikki Haley in GOP primary
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who dropped out of the race, still has nine delegates and pharmaceutical businessman Vivek Ramaswamy nabbed three delegates.
It takes 1,215 delegates to clinch the nomination. So while Trump is closer, he still has a long way to go.
Or does he?
At this point in the race, Trump has won every single contest: the Iowa caucus, the New Hampshire primary, the Virgin Islands caucus and, as of Thursday, the Nevada caucus. His only remaining major opponent, Haley, hasn’t won one.
That Trump enjoys headwinds going into the South Carolina primary Feb. 24 is undeniable. Although Haley says she plans to remain in the race until at least Super Tuesday on March 5, a decisive victory for Trump in Haley’s home state would put her viability seriously in doubt.
The most recent poll, Morning Consult, Feb. 6, shows Trump well ahead of Haley, 68% to 31%. A Washington Post/Monmouth poll released Jan. 31 found Trump with 58% and Haley with 32%.
The Real Clear Politics polling average shows Trump 56 percentage points ahead in the race overall; Trump stands at 74.3% and Haley at 18.1%.
Trump’s sweep thus far isn’t really about the number of delegates he’s amassing for the July convention in Milwaukee. It’s about his momentum in reaching that goal. And with each contest he wins, he becomes more and more the inevitable choice as the nominee of the Republican Party.
This comes despite efforts of some in his party to choose someone else: Ex-New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie made the strongest case, and other candidates including Haley and DeSantis have made less pointed, more tepid criticisms. But nothing has been able to stop Trump thus far.
Yes. The Nevada effort was tilted toward Trump. By boycotting the Tuesday primary, insisting that candidates had to choose either the primary or the caucus and striking the names of candidates from caucus ballots as they dropped out, Nevada officials virtually assured Trump’s victory. Democrats criticized Trump's victory as a "sham caucus" and a "rigged caucus."
But Haley’s 2-to-1 defeat to the “None of These Candidates” ballot option will only serve to reinforce her weakness as Trump's main challenger and the inevitability of his hold on the party, as well as the nomination. The “Never Trump” contingent – Texas pastor Ryan Binkley got a handful of votes in the Thursday caucus – isn’t powerful enough to stop Trump’s popularity with the party’s base.
It's a cliché in politics that “anything can happen.” Trump is facing a variety of legal cases that could complicate his campaign. He could face adverse rulings in the U.S. Supreme Court on his claims of presidential immunity. A conviction might persuade some Trump supporters to stay home on Election Day.
On the other side, persistent questions about President Joe Biden’s age – underscored by a special counsel report coincidentally released on Thursday – could complicate his re-election efforts, as could questions about the economy, conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza and the persistent problems with immigration at the southern border.
At this point, however, Trump appears to have the momentum going into South Carolina and Super Tuesday to be declared the nominee, setting up a rematch of the Trump versus Joe Biden race of 2020.
“If we win the state of the Nevada, it’s over for them,” Trump said at the caucus night watch party. “If we win Nevada we easily win the election in November.”
He’s not wrong: Nevada is one of a handful states that will likely decide the outcome, along with North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. If Trump performs well here, he’ll presumably have done well in those other states, too.
But that’s an issue for November, in 50 state elections where Trump – unlike Thursday in Nevada – will face more than token opposition.
