LAS VEGAS (KTNV) — Two new polls show Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris slightly ahead of her Republican rival Donald Trump in Nevada, although still within the margin of error.
The polls continue a trend that's seeing Harris reversing the poor polling numbers enjoyed by President Biden before he dropped out of the race last month.
A poll by Fox News shows Harris at 50 percent and Trump at 48 percent in Nevada, within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
The same poll shows Harris up by 1 percentage point in next-door Arizona, up by 2 percentage points in Georgia and down by 1 percentage point in North Carolina.
All are swing states that could help decide the overall winner of the 2024 election in November.
The poll also showed voters trust Trump more on immigration and border security, the economy and dealing with the war between Israel and Hamas, but that they trust Harris more on healthcare, abortion and the ability to unite the country.
Notably, the poll found incumbent Democratic U.S. Sen. Jacky Rosen with a 14-percentage-point lead over her Republican rival, Sam Brown.
That result was similar in Arizona, where Democratic Senate candidate Rep. Ruben Gallego is running ahead of Republican Kari Lake, 56 percent to 41 percent, although Harris only leads Trump by 1 percentage point in that state.
The Fox News poll was conducted between Aug. 23-26.
In addition, Emerson College and The Hill newspaper conducted a survey that found Harris was up 1 percentage point in Nevada, 49 percent to 48 percent to Trump. That poll's margin of error ranges from 2.8 percentage points to 3.6 percentage points.
Unlike the Fox News poll, Emerson found Trump leading in Arizona (50 percent to 47 percent) and up by 1 percentage point in Wisconsin (49 percent to 48 percent) and North Carolina (49 percent to 48 percent).
The poll found Harris leading 50 percent to 47 percent in Michigan and 49 percent to 48 percent in Georgia.
But in the super-critical swing state of Pennsylvania, the candidates were tied, with 48 percent each.
Trump is leading among Nevada's independent voters, 50 percent to 44 percent, and men, 52 percent to 45 percent, while Harris leads among women (53 percent to 44 percent) and voters younger than 30 (70 percent to 28 percent).
In the Emerson College poll, Rosen leads Brown by 10 percentage points, 50 percent to 40 percent.
The poll was conducted Aug. 25-28.
In a poll released by the Cook Political Report this month, Trump was slightly behind in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, but Harris was trailing in Nevada. (She'd narrowed the lead considerably from a May survey, however, cutting the Democratic deficit from 9 percentage points to just 3 percentage points.)
That same survey found Harris up by 1 point overall in the swing states. In addition, it found Rosen leading Brown, 50 percent to 33 percent.
Polling averages by political analysts show similar results to the Fox and Emerson poll: FiveThirtyEight.com puts Harris up over Trump by 3.4 percentage points nationally, and by 1.1 percentage points here in Nevada.
The New York Times average has Harris up 4 percentage points, 49 percent to 45 percent. (It shows them even in Pennsylvania and Arizona.)
And Real Clear Politics has Harris up just 1.6 percentage points nationally, but lists Trump up by 0.6 percentage points here in Nevada. Trump also leads in Arizona, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia, where Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, went on a campaign bus tour this week.
In the electoral college, however, Real Clear Politics has Trump winning the election, 287 votes to 251 votes for Harris. The site puts Nevada, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina in Trump's column.
But if he were to lose Pennsylvania, or a combination of two or three other battleground states, that number would shift to a Harris victory.
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